UCD Data Digest: Examining Transportation Levels Two Years into the Pandemic

Last week, we passed the two-year mark of the COVID-19 pandemic shutting down the economy and altering daily routines. In those early days of the crisis, mandated lockdowns kept Philadelphians at home, and as a result, traffic, transit ridership, and even pedestrian travel through our neighborhood all but dried up. As we enter year three of the COVID-19 pandemic, we're again hoping the worst days of COVID's impact on the economy and our daily lives are behind us, and we're taking a look at patterns that have started to emerge regarding how people are getting from point A to point B in the new world of hybrid work and learning, and what steps can be taken to reinvigorate the use of public transit in our neighborhood. 

As you'll see in the graph above, daily automobile traffic into University City was relatively predictable in the years before March 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic first forced shutdowns in Philadelphia. In fact, in the weeks leading up to the shutdowns, UCD and some regional partners had been working on a transit subsidy pilot program aimed at reducing automobile traffic congestion in our neighborhood. In February of 2020, we launched a pilot to incentivize employees at Penn, Penn Medicine, and Children's Hospital of Philadelphia to commute to work via regional rail and/or SEPTA instead of driving into the neighborhood, with a goal of expanding the program once we could prove positive outcomes. And then the shutdowns occurred, causing all forms of travel, including public transit and driving, to fall precipitously, and forcing us to scuttle our pilot. 

Since the initial drop-off in the spring of 2020, car volume has once again leveled off to new daily averages hovering at around 55-65% of their prior levels. Continued remote work and hybrid schedules likely account for this, along with the very recent rises in gas prices. When looking at these numbers, however, we must remember not everyone is on a remote or hybrid work schedule. This is especially true in a neighborhood like University City, which is home to universities, medical campuses, and biotechnology firms.

While people may be driving or taking transit to their offices only once or twice a week, our data shows people are outside walking around the neighborhood every day. In the fall, we talked about how pedestrian traffic had returned to pre-pandemic volumes, and we are pleased to report that has continued. At two prime intersections in University City – 34^th and Chestnut, near the intersection of Drexel and Penn’s campuses, and at 40^th and Walnut, where the edge of Penn’s campus meets the neighborhood – foot traffic is at or even above baseline levels.

Even the expected dip around December, when many students return home and cold weather sets in, was less pronounced in 2021 than in previous years. All of this is an indication that people are excited and comfortable being out and about in the neighborhood. As offices again announce new plans for returns to physical offices, we expect car traffic to begin increasing again, and when it does we'll need our public transit options – regional rail, buses, trolleys, and the Market-Frankford Line – to be operating consistently and safely to account for more people needing to commute to our neighborhood. 

That's why we were pleased to see SEPTA announce an expanded pilot program in partnership with Drexel University, Penn Medicine, and Wawa to offer free transportation passes to employees as a way to ease congestion around their facilities, incentivize transit use, and lower the cost of commuting for workers. And despite overall ridership on SEPTA declining by approximately 7% between 2020 and 2021, programs such as this pilot will likely help to bring ridership levels back up, especially on regional rail lines, which have seen the biggest drop off in usage since the pandemic began.

It'll be an interesting spring for our neighborhood, one that should give insight into what the "new normal" for commuting and office workers may look like. We can safely predict our sidewalks to fill up with people on foot as the weather improves. The recently reopened Chestnut Street Bridge will offer an important roadway for automobiles, cyclists, and pedestrians, unclogging things in the area directly west of the Schuylkill River. Beyond that, we'll continue to monitor transit ridership, the results of the SEPTA pilot, and overall automobile traffic in hopes that our neighborhood will continue offering convenient and safe methods for commuting.